Share Market Tips: What will be the market's move ahead, which shares will give profit, know expert's opinion
People who follow the fund to buy in the fall enjoy the market even when the Sensex falls 2800 points. Because only this gives a shopping opportunity.
In our previous report, we had told that along with the facts and figures, the market has fallen on the last four Fridays. This week Sean was somewhat different. He sold from the beginning of the week and brought the Nifty to 14567 on Thursday on the day of Weekly Expiry. The Nifty had moved below the psychological support level of 14700. On Friday, the market started to worsen. The Nifty had moved to a low of 14371 before taking a sharp U-turn. We realized this U-turn and we issued a purchase call for 15,300 at 14,456 level in Nifty and 14750 plus target at intraday. The Nifty not only crossed the 14750 level, but it also crossed the 14800 mark. A jump of 430 points in intra-day is a big deal. Now we will analyze why this happened ...
Traders had enjoyed a five-day sell-off in the previous week and were happy to see a fall in the second half of the last session of the week. He also decided to shorten the Nifty on Friday. But they were afraid of selling at the 14370 level. When the Nifty crossed the 14567 level, it had hit the green mark. After this, they started selling again. At that time there was instability in the Nifty. He went to 14648 and fell back to 14500. This gave the short sellers some comfort. They felt that they were in the right direction. The history of the last 4 Fridays was wandering in his mind. But eventually the Nifty gained momentum and reached close to 14800. This is screen analysis. Shares such as Tisco rose from 693 to 738. Many other such stocks also witnessed similar gains. Let us now analyze the reasons behind the fall of 2800 points.
We should make it clear in our mind that FPIs are not selling in India, which you can see from the figures. So far in March, FPIs have poured more than Rs 12000 crore. Although it is lower than the previous months' figure of 40-45 thousand crores, but it is definitely not lower, given the drop of 2800 points. At least we can say that FPIs are not sellers. In fact, the US Fed has allowed 80 billion US bonds to be purchased from next month, which means that India will also start getting $ 6 billion every month again, which means that 40-45 thousand crores of arrivals will come again. Can. This indicates that we are moving our Nifty estimates from 15900 to 16600. In this way, there is no change in our attitude towards Nifty.
As far as selling of DII is concerned, if they have been selling for the last 10 months, then it will not matter. Yes, mutual funds are selling more due to redemption pressure. We will talk about this in the coming paragraph.
The sell-off actually came from the operators. This is also confirmed by position unwinding. In the Nifty, the OI fell from 1.31 crore shares to 79 lakh shares. The sale happened because funders withdrew large funding in the last 2 to 3 weeks. He made this withdrawal, looking at the last time of the financial year, so that at the end of the year, the entry in the books was not seen. This is a normal practice. Even NBFCs close accounts at the end of the year. The second is that the bankers and NBFC diverted big money for the bundle of IPO (more than 10 IPOs) and are engaged in buying stakes in some government companies. The third factor was a rally of 7500 to 15000 in 1 year, which means huge profits in the books of big corporate operators and the FPIs need to be paid in advance on 15 March. Usually, they prefer to postpone the earlier installment till March 15, as it benefits them. According to our valuation, the total impact was a withdrawal of over Rs 80000 crore, which was sure to hit the market. The last thing is that due to these issues there was huge redemption in mutual funds and hence mutual funds became sellers. It was a vicious cycle.
All this was completed in Thursday's expiry, as there were only 5 sessions left for the Monthly Expiry and due to holidays from 27 March to 2 April it had to be completed on time. Now why did the market fall on Friday? Examining the channel shows that the people who control the market were caught in shorts when the Nifty broke the 14780 level. There is always a case of over reaction. The operators felt that the situation would not improve before the end of the financial year, so they decided to shorten. He believed that the Nifty would now come to 14000 and reverse only after 25 March 2021. But this time Fpi had a different plan and they started buying. With the .82 pc ratio and the .79 crs Nifty OI it was impossible to see a big drop in the market. Aggressive shorts fell in the first 15 minutes of fall on Friday and so the Nifty bounced. That is why it has reached 14800. Now if it crosses 14900 on Monday, we can see closing at 15350 on Thursday, as it is the end of the financial year and the market closes at the highest level after buying over Rs 2.5 lakh crore. .
Going forward, we assume that if you see a 1x gain in the large cap, the profit in the midcap will be 5x and the small cap will be 10x over the next 3 years.
However, those who follow the fund to buy in a downturn, enjoy the market even when the Sensex falls 2800 points. Because only it gives the opportunity to buy and the right to sell at a time when others are buying enthusiastically. All CNI members enjoyed it, as we only gave them the opportunity to watch the 1400 point rally on Friday. From here we will see a new high level very fast. In a few hours, a 6 percent return in stocks like Tisco is 3 times the annual bond yield of the USA. India will see another 3 lakh crore inward in the coming months. Now there is less space in the large cap. Mid-cap and small-cap will see large inflows, which indicate profits ranging from five times to 10 times. So keep investing.
(The author is CMD of cniresearchltd.com. The views published are his personal.)